The Minister of National Security's recent budget presentation was largely focused on the ongoing decline in Jamaica’s murder rate and the role of the Jamaica Constabulary Force (JCF) in targeting gangs, the main perpetrators of armed violence in Jamaica. The Minister highlighted the considerable increase in investment in the JCF, as well as the force’s evolving approaches to gang elimination. He mentioned that the JCF is employing “Lattice Theory” to gain insights into the dynamics of criminal networks to inform gang eradication efforts.
Lattice Theory is a framework for modelling hierarchical or networked relationships, as exists in criminal organisations. It offers a lens through which the structure and dynamics of criminal networks can be analysed, especially when dealing with complex hierarchies. By understanding these relationships, law enforcement can identify key individuals in the system, or nodes, that, if disrupted, weaken the entire network.
If the JCF is indeed engaging Lattice Theory as part of its crime reduction strategy, it would reflect an attempt to better understand how the relationships within organised violence networks can be targeted beyond simply decapitating gang leadership. As Jamaica’s own recent history has shown, taking out gang leaders without factoring in what happens next can lead to fragmentation, and, perhaps paradoxically, increased violence, as CAPRI documented in its 2020 report Guns Out: The Splintering of Jamaica’s Gangs. As larger, hierarchical gangs broke apart, new, smaller, and more fluid offshoots formed, often becoming more difficult to control and predict. Evidence from that experience suggests that dismantling organised crime requires tracing and interdicting individuals who play supporting roles, not only the leaders and high-volume violence producers.
CAPRI's recent report, Hits and Misses: Women in Organised Violence, though not explicitly framed within the context of Lattice Theory, offers insights that could help operationalise this framework in Jamaica’s fight against gang violence. The report focuses on the roles women play in organised crime networks, showing that women can be and, based on the evidence, are involved in gang-related activities in non-obvious but key roles. They are not usually direct perpetrators of violence, but play vital roles as financial operatives, couriers, and other facilitators of gang operations.
Understanding these roles supports the application of Lattice Theory, which highlights how even peripheral participants in criminal networks—such as women—are often essential to their operation. By targeting these roles, it may be possible to disrupt the flow of resources, information, and power within gang structures, weakening their capacity to sustain violent activities. In addition to focusing on removing top leaders or displacing the most prolific perpetrators of violence, addressing these interconnected roles could have a broader impact on destabilising the gang’s ability to function.
For example, the research found that women often become involved in gangs through familial or romantic ties, meaning that they are often linked to male gang leaders or other influential figures within the violence ecosystem. By mapping out these connections, the JCF could potentially disrupt these familial or intimate relationships, which may destabilise the gang’s internal structures, which could result in a sustained weakening of the gang and preclude its reconfiguration if the top tier is taken out.
Incorporating gendered insights into the application of Lattice Theory could add depth to the JCF’s fight against gangs. While the JCF may be focusing on traditional gang structures, recognising that women play a significant role in these networks could lead to additional targeted interventions. Women are not merely passive participants in gang violence; they actively contribute to the organisation and operation of criminal networks. By addressing their specific roles, the JCF could potentially disrupt the gangs’ ability to operate now and in the future, and thus contribute to the reduction of violence in Jamaica.
As Jamaica begins to turn the tide on gang violence, the security sector and the country face a critical opportunity: to ensure this reduction is sustained, rather than celebrate a brief moment of progress. Achieving this will require more than just continued investment and resources for the JCF, or ongoing public support for the security forces—which has undeniably bolstered morale, confidence, and performance. It calls for a more strategic approach by thinking several steps ahead in new and innovative ways, particularly in terms of what happens to gangs once top-tier leadership is dismantled. This is where Lattice Theory can play a pivotal role. However, its full potential will only be realised by integrating analyses of individuals that play supporting roles in criminal networks, many of whom are women that otherwise may go unnoticed by law enforcement.
Incorporating gender dynamics into the Lattice Theory framework gives way to a more complete understanding of criminal networks, allowing the JCF to strengthen its efforts to reduce violence and improve public safety and ensure that progress is both lasting and meaningful.